Swine Flu

[Dr John BoothParticipant @drjohnbooth43899]

How is Swine Flu going to affect the model boating community over the next 6 months?

Swine Flu represents a real threat to a large section of the general population and some of my colleagues in the medical fraternity are really concerned that the general public are not taking the threat seriously especially those in the high risk groups.

 

I think that is reasonable to assume that the majority of model boaters are of a certain age where underlying medical problems are more prevalent than usual and as such are in one of the high risk groups.

With all of this in mind do we continue with our plans to hold and attend shows / events, do we wear face masks or do we just ignore the problem and hope that it will go away?   

I don’t wish to be a “scare monger” but I do believe that we should all give careful consideration to our own personal risk and the potential of exposure to the virus.

 

nb:

 

I thought long and hard before posting this thread as I didnt wish to upset anybody but I do believe that we should all be aware of the problem.

Edited By Dr John Booth on 19/07/2009 09:12:33

[Dr John BoothParticipant @drjohnbooth43899]

What is the risk?

[Bob Abell 2Participant @bobabell2]

Thank you Dr Booth

 

I think you are quite right in warning us of the dangers of this sinister lurking hazard!

 

I`ve noticed that it not going away and is slowly taking hold, the government should be more active now

 

I shall avoid the crowds in future……….especially indoor shows!

 

Thank you……………..Bob

[neil hpParticipant @neilhp]

I think if you are going to catch it, you will catch it…………..there is no escape…………

 

But just look at it this way, Michael Wacko Jackson walked around with a face mask on for years to avoid what is inevitable…………and it didn’t do him much good.

 

Take precautions, notify the doc at the first symptoms and stay at home………you could worry yourselves into an early grave without even catching it.

 

Having said that, it didn’t stop the 1000’s that were at Fleetwood today for the Transport Festival????

 

Just Take Care.

Edited By neil howard-pritchard on 19/07/2009 15:33:15

[ashley needhamParticipant @ashleyneedham69188]

There is nothing you can do, if ,like me,you travel to and from work in a crowded train, or tube, or even bus. This is the trouble with todays modern living. We are crammed together and these contageous deseases (or whatever) spread and thats that. God help us all if something REALLY nasty comes along. We are all goners. (not starting another boat just yet……..)

Ashley  (coff coff)

[Paul GodfreyParticipant @paulgodfrey14946]

I also believe that what will be, will be. I work in an office building which has around 250 people in it, I go into town at lunchtime, into shops, supermarkets, pubs……As Neil and Ashley say, there’s no point in worrying about it as there’s nowt that you can do, except stay at home and lock yourself in – and I do not want to do that (nor would my employer!!)

 

Paul

[Paul TParticipant @pault84577]

John makes a very serious point.

Perhaps we are becoming desensitised to the threat that this virus represents as the consensus of opinion is “what will be will be” and yet all we have to do is have a quick look at the last pandemic which affected 500 million people and killed up to 100 million to see how fast the virus spread, and this was in an age before fast and easy worldwide travel.

 

It is of some concern that health officials have been keen to promote the impression during early days of the pandemic that deaths only affected people with underlying health problems.

 

Is this deliberately misleading as during the last pandemic of 1911 > 1918 the virus killed mainly young and fit people due to the extreme reaction of the immune system. (called a cytokine storm)

 

We should all think very carefully about limiting our contact with other people especially in confined spaces, I realise that most have to go to work and use public transport so perhaps they should be taking precautions such as wearing masks and gloves.

 

[David WooleyParticipant @davidwooley82563]

Why  don’t we all  stock up with food , lock the door and don’t come out until we hear  the “all clear”  Sorry but life goes on .  

Dave Wooley

[neil hpParticipant @neilhp]

I take your point, Paul, but that pandemic was almost 100 years ago when most of the world was still living in sqaller, with little sanitation, almost no communications and very very few doctors, with little knowledge of such and medicines that were basically “snake oil”

 

Thank fully things have moved on immensly and medicine  with regards to virus’s had come on leaps and bounds in just 20 years, as a result of research into HIV / AIDS anti virus drugs.

I am not saying I’m complacent, but I also feel that we have to keep vigilant about it, especially as I worry for my two young daughters.

I’ll keep away from such places as cinemas, resteraunts and such though whilst on my hols.

neil.

[Dr John BoothParticipant @drjohnbooth43899]

Statistically a third of the population will be affected by the virus but the majority those infected will recover with little or no medical intervention however the high risk groups such as the older (over 50) or the infirm are more prone to suffer a very high degree of serious health deterioration or death.

As I stated in my primary posting it is not my intention to scare monger but merely to remind members about the potential problem so that they might make up their own minds about the level of personal risk that, as an individual they might face.

 

John

Edited By Dr John Booth on 21/07/2009 06:39:46

[Colin BishopModerator @colinbishop34627]

I think John is right that a bit of care will greatly reduce likelihood of infection – especially by following hand hygiene precautions.

 

A lot of the outbreaks of Novovirus on cruise ships are caused by people not following elementary precautions in washing your hands and using alcohol sprays. Somebody brings it on board and round the ship it goes.

 

I think part of the problem these days is that people are just not sufficiently educated in basic scientific biological principles so they simply are not in a position to evaluate and minimise the risks they are exposed to.

 

Colin

[Barry FooteParticipant @barryfoote68385]

I as a layman have no idea how dangerous this thing can be, but my father has just cancelled a trip out here to Spain, rather than run the risk of catching it in a crowded airport. He did seek advise before doing so…..and is in the high risk category due to his age…

[Andy HustlerParticipant @andyhustler32076]

I work as a security officer in a medium sized t#sco express in cardiff and am open to all sorts of weird and wonderful bugs with people from all over the world coughing and sneezing and alot of them have no idea what hygeine is and dont cover their mouths and noses when they sneeze .So i reckon if i get i get it and thats life .I dont know if once you have had it you an catch it again ??

Well if i am confined to the house at least i will have the time to work on my boats so there is a bright side to this i guess !!!!!

[Colin BishopModerator @colinbishop34627]

So i reckon if i get i get it and thats life .I dont know if once you have had it you an catch it again ??

 

I think that once you’ve had it, you’ve had it – one way or another…..

 

Colin

 

 

 

[neil hpParticipant @neilhp]

I heard on the news whilst on holiday in scotland last week that Scotland reached the “peak” of people becoming infected and the number per day being recorded is falling fast. the comment was also that the rest of the UK are about two weeks behind, and that cases are now also falling per day in the rest of the UK. as a vacinne is very close to being released ( not Tamiflue) it looks as though hopefully the media hype( which it most definately was) will have to find something else to bleat on about……perhaps they will swap to Jordan and peter andre for a while, and give the rest of us nornmal peolpe a rest from such **&^&*(*%.

[Paul GodfreyParticipant @paulgodfrey14946]

Neil, if it was winter, the news programs would be dominated by the impending threat of 2mm of snow, which of course would be an absolute disaster for everyone, and would necessitate posting reporters to every town in the UK, and using up at least 90% of every news bullitin !!

 

Paul

[Roy CarsonParticipant @roycarson30714]

As most of us model boaters are senior members of our race and we have been told that we aren’t likely to catch the flu why should we worry about meeting other seniors. We are safe according to the medics?

 

[Paul TParticipant @pault84577]

Extract from BBC news:

Officials have always predicted rates of infection would fall away in the summer before a large surge in the autumn to coincide with the normal flu season.
England’s Chief Medical Officer, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, said it was very difficult to predict when a second wave would hit.

 

“It’s guesswork really – we would anticipate that when the schools go back, at some point after that it would rise.

“We can’t be complacent about this, we have to continue planning, we have to be ready for what happens in the autumn.”

Experts are currently looking at what is happening in the southern hemisphere to help predict what could happen in the UK over the winter months.

In the past week deaths in Argentina from swine flu have risen sharply and currently stand at 337.

 

There are also indications that Mexico may be now seeing a second wave of cases.

 

We are all at risk and should not take this lightly.

 

[boat building disastorParticipant @boatbuildingdisastor]

i can say with 75% assurance it is not as bad as it is being made out to be i work for the NHS and it is all hipe my sone has an underlieing ilness he has had it and he was fine please dont let it bother you if you get it you get it i am not worryed and i have to move patients around my local hospital i have more chance of getting it than anyone else

[Bob WilsonParticipant @bobwilson59101]

Well, it seems to be dying out anyway at the moment.   This morning, in the paper, it is now saying that 600,000 are now  at risk from getting strokes through having Tamiflu!

 

Personally, I don’t see the point in taking something that will shorten the illness by a day!

 

Yesterday, I got something and I half wondered if it was Swine Flue as it came on very quickly and I felt quote awful by yesterday evening.    Didn’t worry about it, or even do anything about it.   This morning, after a good night’s sleep, much better!    Still sniffing a bit, but sore throat almost gone!

 

Whilst we are on medical matters I wonder if anyone else wonders about the “flexible” life expectancy?     The papers will go through a phase saying we are the healthiest generation to ever live, with fantastic leaps in medical science expanding out life expectancy in leaps and bounds.   Anyone born today may reasonably expect to live to be 100 plus without much sweat.     Then the phase will pass and we will be told that most children are obese and not as healthy as their parents.    Three out of four of us will succumb to this that, or the other.      Everything is becoming antiobiotic resistant.      Old diseases are making a come-back and we should be screened for everything!   

 

I think I am one of the few that has noticed that EVERYONE who has reached the age of 100, was born in 1909 or earlier!        People will probably continue to live to more than a 100 for some time yet, but I predict that this will eventually fall off when those born from the 60s onward  become older.       I believe we are living in the most poluted envoironment ever,  although it is generally invisible.      Pollution from cars and aircraft being the greatest problem, followed by antibiotics in healthy animal, processed foods, GM foods, preservatives etc etc.

 

I am saying all this with no medical  knowledge or training whatsoever.   It is all based on common sense.       Neither am I a health fanatic, but I am 65 and glad that I was born in a very healthy era

 

Bob

 

      

 

 

[Bob WilsonParticipant @bobwilson59101]

I see that as far as the newspapers are concerned, we have now passed through the “How incredibly healthy this generation is” to the “How fat, obese and lazy is the modern child – not as healthy as their parents and doomed to an early grave!”

Bet it won’t be long before, according to the newspapers, anyone born this month will be able to look forward to 100 + years of supreme health!

Bob

[Bob WilsonParticipant @bobwilson59101]

Sure enough, today, we are now assured that more than half the babies born this year will live to be over 100!       It wont be long before they change their minds and are assuring us that  most of us will die early because we are obese, eat the wrong foods, smoke or drink too much.   

Bob

[Bob WilsonParticipant @bobwilson59101]

They are at it again!   In today’s paper, they are now saying that the over 60s are a most unhealthy generation and all the poor food we ate in the past is catching up with us and what a healthy lot younger people are.       Also calorie intake is now considered incorrect – you can eat a lot more without getting fat!  

Bob 

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