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Swine Flu

What is the risk?

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Dr John Booth19/07/2009 09:09:55
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How is Swine Flu going to affect the model boating community over the next 6 months?
Swine Flu represents a real threat to a large section of the general population and some of my colleagues in the medical fraternity are really concerned that the general public are not taking the threat seriously especially those in the high risk groups.
 
I think that is reasonable to assume that the majority of model boaters are of a certain age where underlying medical problems are more prevalent than usual and as such are in one of the high risk groups.

With all of this in mind do we continue with our plans to hold and attend shows / events, do we wear face masks or do we just ignore the problem and hope that it will go away?   

I don’t wish to be a “scare monger” but I do believe that we should all give careful consideration to our own personal risk and the potential of exposure to the virus.
 
nb:
 
I thought long and hard before posting this thread as I didnt wish to upset anybody but I do believe that we should all be aware of the problem.

Edited By Dr John Booth on 19/07/2009 09:12:33

Bob Abell19/07/2009 09:59:35
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Thank you Dr Booth
 
I think you are quite right in warning us of the dangers of this sinister lurking hazard!
 
I`ve noticed that it not going away and is slowly taking hold, the government should be more active now
 
I shall avoid the crowds in future..........especially indoor shows!
 
Thank you.................Bob
neil howard-pritchard19/07/2009 15:32:10
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I think if you are going to catch it, you will catch it..............there is no escape............
 
But just look at it this way, Michael Wacko Jackson walked around with a face mask on for years to avoid what is inevitable............and it didn't do him much good.
 
Take precautions, notify the doc at the first symptoms and stay at home.........you could worry yourselves into an early grave without even catching it.
 
Having said that, it didn't stop the 1000's that were at Fleetwood today for the Transport Festival????
 
Just Take Care.

Edited By neil howard-pritchard on 19/07/2009 15:33:15

ashley needham19/07/2009 20:28:19
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There is nothing you can do, if ,like me,you travel to and from work in a crowded train, or tube, or even bus. This is the trouble with todays modern living. We are crammed together and these contageous deseases (or whatever) spread and thats that. God help us all if something REALLY nasty comes along. We are all goners. (not starting another boat just yet........)
Ashley  (coff coff)
Paul Godfrey19/07/2009 21:52:42
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I also believe that what will be, will be. I work in an office building which has around 250 people in it, I go into town at lunchtime, into shops, supermarkets, pubs......As Neil and Ashley say, there's no point in worrying about it as there's nowt that you can do, except stay at home and lock yourself in - and I do not want to do that (nor would my employer!!)
 
Paul
Paul T20/07/2009 07:25:40
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John makes a very serious point.
Perhaps we are becoming desensitised to the threat that this virus represents as the consensus of opinion is “what will be will be” and yet all we have to do is have a quick look at the last pandemic which affected 500 million people and killed up to 100 million to see how fast the virus spread, and this was in an age before fast and easy worldwide travel.
 
It is of some concern that health officials have been keen to promote the impression during early days of the pandemic that deaths only affected people with underlying health problems.
 
Is this deliberately misleading as during the last pandemic of 1911 > 1918 the virus killed mainly young and fit people due to the extreme reaction of the immune system. (called a cytokine storm)
 
We should all think very carefully about limiting our contact with other people especially in confined spaces, I realise that most have to go to work and use public transport so perhaps they should be taking precautions such as wearing masks and gloves.

 

David Wooley20/07/2009 09:09:09
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Why  don't we all  stock up with food , lock the door and don't come out until we hear  the "all clear"  Sorry but life goes on .  
Dave Wooley
neil howard-pritchard20/07/2009 12:59:52
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I take your point, Paul, but that pandemic was almost 100 years ago when most of the world was still living in sqaller, with little sanitation, almost no communications and very very few doctors, with little knowledge of such and medicines that were basically "snake oil"
 
Thank fully things have moved on immensly and medicine  with regards to virus's had come on leaps and bounds in just 20 years, as a result of research into HIV / AIDS anti virus drugs.
I am not saying I'm complacent, but I also feel that we have to keep vigilant about it, especially as I worry for my two young daughters.
I'll keep away from such places as cinemas, resteraunts and such though whilst on my hols.
neil.
Dr John Booth21/07/2009 06:38:31
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Statistically a third of the population will be affected by the virus but the majority those infected will recover with little or no medical intervention however the high risk groups such as the older (over 50) or the infirm are more prone to suffer a very high degree of serious health deterioration or death.
As I stated in my primary posting it is not my intention to scare monger but merely to remind members about the potential problem so that they might make up their own minds about the level of personal risk that, as an individual they might face.
 
John

Edited By Dr John Booth on 21/07/2009 06:39:46

Colin Bishop21/07/2009 22:47:10
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I think John is right that a bit of care will greatly reduce likelihood of infection - especially by following hand hygiene precautions.
 
A lot of the outbreaks of Novovirus on cruise ships are caused by people not following elementary precautions in washing your hands and using alcohol sprays. Somebody brings it on board and round the ship it goes.
 
I think part of the problem these days is that people are just not sufficiently educated in basic scientific biological principles so they simply are not in a position to evaluate and minimise the risks they are exposed to.
 
Colin

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